Central Thesis
Most impactful events in history are:
- Rare
- Extreme
- Retrospectively explainable
Traditional models systematically underestimate their importance.
Why This Matters for Risk
Black Swan thinking challenges:
- Overreliance on historical data
- Gaussian assumptions
- False confidence in forecasts
Practical Risk Insight
Risk frameworks should focus less on precise prediction and more on resilience, optionality, and damage containment.